IMM positioning: EU/IMF loan offer to Greece did not spook the EUR bears

 The latest IMM data covers the week from 6 to 13 April.

 Non-commercial short EUR positions were in kept in place last week – only trimmedmarginally – despite the EU/IMF loan offer made to Greece. Hence, while EUR/USD jumped higher on the Greek ‘bail-out’, there are no indications that speculativeinvestors have revised their bearish EUR sentiment significantly; in fact, recent priceaction even indicates that EUR shorts have been built further. As a result, risks remainskewed to the upside on EUR/USD from a position squeeze.

 Short JPY positions were built further, despite USD/JPY moving further away fromits recent 94.71 high. This may help explain the current strong JPY performance, asunwinding of JPY shorts is likely to have catalysed the upward JPY trend, andthereby the break below 92 in USD/JPY.

 Long positions in the commodity currencies have been extended and overallspeculative investors remain long the dollar currencies against the EUR currencies.